Google OS to dominate by 2015?

By Jennifer Scott on Jan 18, 2011 9:05 AM
Filed under Software

Industry analysts predict course of portable computing market for next three years.

Google's 'Lite' Operating Systems (OS), including Android and Chrome OS, will dominate the market in the coming years, according to an industry analyst firm.

Ovum suggested Apple's market share was currently riding high at 90 per cent thanks to the dominance of the iPad and the steady popularity of the iPhone. However, in its report, the analyst predicted it would drop to around 35 per cent by 2015, while Google's market share would increase to 36 per cent.

Other platforms would collectively comprise around 29 per cent of the market share.

Tony Cripps, a principal analyst at Ovum, said: “This is because the dominant software platforms, Apple and Google, will attract the most attention from the cream of the developers.”

“As a result they will have the best, most talked about applications and content and, when all is said and done, this is what people will consider when making a purchasing decision.”

According to the research 'Lite' Operating Systems (OS) are driving a global interest in hand-held, internet-enabled gadgets.

Ovum's report predicted a global increase in shipping of portable devices from 14.2 million at the end of 2010 to around 150 million per year by 2015 - a growth rate of 60 per cent.

The survey tracked devices using 'Lite' OS such as Apple iOS, Google Android and RIM's BlackBerry Tablet OS.

Although North America and Western Europe would take a considerable slice of global shipments by 2015, Ovum believed Asia would see the greatest proportion, accounting for 35 per cent.

Ovum attributed this difference to the considerable size of the potential market in Asia and the comparatively low penetration of PCs compared to the Western market.

This article originally appeared at itpro.co.uk

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4 comments in this discussion

"Microsoft should be worried. Young people in particular like iphone and ipad and are now wanting to try Apple PC's and they will be driving a huge push in that direction."

By spook1958

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Comments: 4

webxopt Jan 18, 2011 6:23 PM	I've been testing the Nexus One for a raw Android experience for about 6 month now. My conclusion is that you will see Androids market share rising, but then it will likely fall again. My reasoning is that...to be honest, it's just not that good. There are a lot of things that are poorly thought out from a user experience point of view. Even things as basic as switching on airplane mode is just plain confusion. The button is labelled "Airplane Mode is Off", does that mean 3G is on (actually it does). It makes me stop and check icons every time. That is just one of many issues which include the screen touch seeming to offset itself (I always wondered why Android also has a pointing device, but its actually useful for this reason), and email experience that despite what the fanboys say, is just not that good and an awful browser that scales really, really badly. All in all the Android experience is one that seems to have more hype than substance. In my opinion it will pick up market share with people who buy it because they want a smart phone but don't particularly want an iPhone, but I can't see them sticking with it for more than one contract! My guess is that the iPhone market share will decline over the next year, although numbers will go up. After that the situation will reverse and iPhone will take back market share. There are others in this game too. You can't count out Windows, as much as we'd like to and HP's WebOS might still do well. As for tablets, there is no doubt that Apple have a big lead. I'm not sure Android will be able to claw that one back either having not seen Gingerbread. In netbooks, the launch of Chrome OS has been totally underwhelming, so don't expect anything much to be running that as a main operating system. It might see some use as a quick boot. Everyone is so keen to jump on the Google bandwagon all the time that they often don't take the time to actually look at what they are offering. Yes, there are a lot on Android phones out there, why, because it is free and it's better than any of the vendors had. Is it on par with iOS? At the moment it's not, although there is some great functionality, the user experience for an everyday phone user is just not in the same league as Apple.
Hydrans Jan 19, 2011 4:08 PM	I think that this comment is great, it is exactly what I am experiencing also. I like the Apple solution it is a great application deployment tool, the Apps for it are great. The elephant however is not Google, it is Microsoft, as the Windows Mobile is surprisingly good, I would even go as far as saying it is better than both the Apple and Android solutions. What Microsoft has not got, and this ultimately will break the platform unless they can fix it very quickly, is the apps for it currently are limited in there substance. I believe that the vast majority of companies will use the MS phone, if, and it is a big if currently, integrate it with their in house solutions and IT infrastructure. I think that the preferred solution for IT departments would be a fully managable device that fits into their IT policy, clearly this would be a Windows based device as 99% of companies use it as their platform of choice. If they can fix the apps, I believe that Andriod and Apple will exist purely as "really really cool phones" and Windows Mobile will be a work provided phone.
Argus.Tuft Jan 19, 2011 4:36 PM	Thanks Folks, It's refreshing to see a little intelligent, reasoned comment that actually addresses the real points of interest to the large number of us who are interested in what these devices can do for us as tools rather than as fashion accessories and substitute toys.
spook1958 Jan 20, 2011 10:55 AM	Microsoft should be worried. Young people in particular like iphone and ipad and are now wanting to try Apple PC's and they will be driving a huge push in that direction.